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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Jazira Al Hamra — Presidents Cup 2019

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jazira Al Hamra
Al Jazira Al Hamra
12/3/2023Presidents CupPresidents Cup · Play-offsDibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah76%
×Draw16%
Al Jazira Al Hamra8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
2.30
Al Jazira Al Hamra
0.60

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 283% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.89
Al Jazira Al Hamra
0.43

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.78
Al Jazira Al Hamra
2.71

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
92%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Jazira Al Hamra
84%
Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra
24%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
52%
Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
90%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
67%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
40%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals
45%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals
12%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
90%
Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.89 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.30

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 0.43 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
76%
level
16%
Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more
8%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Jazira Al Hamra

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Jazira Al Hamra 1-0 in Presidents Cup on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Dibba Stadium in Dibba Al Fujairah.