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Diarra vs Stade Malien Bamako — Première Division 2019

Diarra
Diarra
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
H. Mandjan 90+3'
M. Cisse 56'
L. Kouma 28'
5/15/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 22Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Diarra18%
×Draw30%
Stade Malien Bamako52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diarra
0.62
Stade Malien Bamako
1.27

Stade Malien Bamako creates 105% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 98 away

creates per match

Diarra
0.65
Stade Malien Bamako
1.39

allows per match

Diarra
1.15
Stade Malien Bamako
0.59

finishing

Diarra+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diarra ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Diarra or draw
48%
Diarra or Stade Malien Bamako
70%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
82%

Winning margin

Diarra wins by 2+
5%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Diarra 1+ goals
46%
Diarra 2+ goals
13%
Diarra 3+ goals
3%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
72%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
36%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Diarra (draw refunded)
26%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diarra at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diarra attack 0.65 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.62

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.39 + Diarra defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Diarra scores more
18%
level
30%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
52%

Stade Malien Bamako at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
L. Kouma
56'
M. Cisse
90+3'
H. Mandjan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Diarra 0–3 Stade Malien Bamako

Stade Malien Bamako beat Diarra 3-0 in Première Division on May 15, 2025.

Goals: L. Kouma (28'), M. Cisse (56'), H. Mandjan (90+3').

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.