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Diarra vs Réal Bamako — Première Division 2019

Diarra
Diarra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
1/10/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Diarra22%
×Draw31%
Réal Bamako46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diarra
0.70
Réal Bamako
1.15

Réal Bamako creates 64% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 99 away

creates per match

Diarra
0.65
Réal Bamako
1.15

allows per match

Diarra
1.15
Réal Bamako
0.74

finishing

Diarra+0.00on par
Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diarra ↓

Réal Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Diarra or draw
54%
Diarra or Réal Bamako
69%
Draw or Réal Bamako
78%

Winning margin

Diarra wins by 2+
6%
Réal Bamako wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Diarra 1+ goals
50%
Diarra 2+ goals
16%
Diarra 3+ goals
3%
Réal Bamako 1+ goals
68%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
32%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Diarra (draw refunded)
33%
Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diarra at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diarra attack 0.65 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.70

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Diarra defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Diarra scores more
22%
level
31%
Réal Bamako scores more
46%

Réal Bamako at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diarra vs Réal Bamako

Réal Bamako beat Diarra 2-0 in Première Division on January 10, 2026.