Diarra 0–1 Djoliba: Result & Stats

Diarra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Djoliba

2/9/2025

Première Division · Round 12Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Diarra17%

×Draw30%

Djoliba53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiarraExpected goals in this matchDjoliba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.59

1.27

Diarra

0.59

Djoliba

1.27

Djoliba creates 115% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 95 away

0.65

creates per match

1.39

1.15

allows per match

0.54

creates per match

Diarra

0.65

Djoliba

1.39

allows per match

Diarra

1.15

Djoliba

0.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diarra+0.00on par

Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diarra ↓

Djoliba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–120%

0–213%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Diarra or draw

47%

Diarra or Djoliba

70%

Draw or Djoliba

83%

Winning margin

Diarra wins by 2+

4%

Djoliba wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Diarra 1+ goals

45%

Diarra 2+ goals

12%

Diarra 3+ goals

2%

Djoliba 1+ goals

72%

Djoliba 2+ goals

36%

Djoliba 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Diarra (draw refunded)

25%

Djoliba (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diarra at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diarra attack 0.65 + Djoliba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.59

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Diarra defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Diarra scores more

17%

level

30%

Djoliba scores more

53%

Djoliba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff