Diarra 1–0 Bakaridjan: Result & Stats

Diarra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bakaridjan

12/20/2025

Première Division · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Diarra25%

×Draw32%

Bakaridjan43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiarraExpected goals in this matchBakaridjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.08

Diarra

0.75

Bakaridjan

1.08

Bakaridjan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 94 away

0.65

creates per match

1.01

1.15

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Diarra

0.65

Bakaridjan

1.01

allows per match

Diarra

1.15

Bakaridjan

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diarra+0.00on par

Bakaridjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diarra ↓

Bakaridjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Diarra or draw

57%

Diarra or Bakaridjan

68%

Draw or Bakaridjan

75%

Winning margin

Diarra wins by 2+

8%

Bakaridjan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Diarra 1+ goals

53%

Diarra 2+ goals

17%

Diarra 3+ goals

4%

Bakaridjan 1+ goals

66%

Bakaridjan 2+ goals

29%

Bakaridjan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Diarra (draw refunded)

37%

Bakaridjan (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diarra at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Bakaridjan away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diarra attack 0.65 + Bakaridjan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.75

Bakaridjan attack 1.01 + Diarra defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Diarra scores more

25%

level

32%

Bakaridjan scores more

43%

Bakaridjan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bakaridjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff