Diambars 2–1 Niarry Tally: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Diambars

FT

2 – 1

Niarry Tally

1/2/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Fodé Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Diambars50%

×Draw28%

Niarry Tally22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiambarsExpected goals in this matchNiarry Tally

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.79

Diambars

1.34

Niarry Tally

0.79

Diambars creates 70% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 20 away

1.24

creates per match

0.80

0.78

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Diambars

1.24

Niarry Tally

0.80

allows per match

Diambars

0.78

Niarry Tally

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diambars+0.00on par

Niarry Tally+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diambars ↓

Niarry Tally →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Diambars or draw

78%

Diambars or Niarry Tally

72%

Draw or Niarry Tally

50%

Winning margin

Diambars wins by 2+

24%

Niarry Tally wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Diambars 1+ goals

74%

Diambars 2+ goals

39%

Diambars 3+ goals

15%

Niarry Tally 1+ goals

55%

Niarry Tally 2+ goals

19%

Niarry Tally 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Diambars (draw refunded)

69%

Niarry Tally (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diambars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

Niarry Tally away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diambars attack 1.24 + Niarry Tally defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Niarry Tally attack 0.80 + Diambars defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Diambars scores more

50%

level

28%

Niarry Tally scores more

22%

Diambars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff