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Diambars vs Génération Foot — Ligue 1 2019

Diambars
Diambars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Génération Foot
Génération Foot
1/2/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Fodé Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Diambars38%
×Draw32%
Génération Foot30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diambars
1.03
Génération Foot
0.88

Diambars creates 17% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 88 away

creates per match

Diambars
1.24
Génération Foot
0.98

allows per match

Diambars
0.78
Génération Foot
0.83

finishing

Diambars+0.00on par
Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diambars ↓

Génération Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Diambars or draw
70%
Diambars or Génération Foot
68%
Draw or Génération Foot
62%

Winning margin

Diambars wins by 2+
15%
Génération Foot wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Diambars 1+ goals
64%
Diambars 2+ goals
28%
Diambars 3+ goals
9%
Génération Foot 1+ goals
59%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
22%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Diambars (draw refunded)
56%
Génération Foot (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diambars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diambars attack 1.24 + Génération Foot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Génération Foot attack 0.98 + Diambars defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Diambars scores more
38%
level
32%
Génération Foot scores more
30%

Diambars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diambars vs Génération Foot

Diambars and Génération Foot drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Fodé Wade in Saly.