Diambars 1–0 Douanes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Diambars

FT

1 – 0

Douanes

5/29/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Fodé Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Diambars44%

×Draw31%

Douanes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiambarsExpected goals in this matchDouanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.77

Diambars

1.13

Douanes

0.77

Diambars creates 47% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

1.24

creates per match

0.76

0.78

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Diambars

1.24

Douanes

0.76

allows per match

Diambars

0.78

Douanes

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diambars+0.00on par

Douanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diambars ↓

Douanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Diambars or draw

75%

Diambars or Douanes

69%

Draw or Douanes

56%

Winning margin

Diambars wins by 2+

19%

Douanes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Diambars 1+ goals

68%

Diambars 2+ goals

31%

Diambars 3+ goals

11%

Douanes 1+ goals

54%

Douanes 2+ goals

18%

Douanes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Diambars (draw refunded)

64%

Douanes (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diambars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

Douanes away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diambars attack 1.24 + Douanes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Douanes attack 0.76 + Diambars defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Diambars scores more

44%

level

31%

Douanes scores more

25%

Diambars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff