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Diambars vs Casa Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Diambars
Diambars
FT
1 – 2
Casa Sport
Casa Sport
12/14/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Fodé Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Diambars43%
×Draw31%
Casa Sport26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diambars
1.11
Casa Sport
0.80

Diambars creates 39% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 88 away

creates per match

Diambars
1.24
Casa Sport
0.81

allows per match

Diambars
0.78
Casa Sport
0.99

finishing

Diambars+0.00on par
Casa Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diambars ↓

Casa Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Diambars or draw
74%
Diambars or Casa Sport
69%
Draw or Casa Sport
57%

Winning margin

Diambars wins by 2+
18%
Casa Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Diambars 1+ goals
67%
Diambars 2+ goals
30%
Diambars 3+ goals
10%
Casa Sport 1+ goals
55%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
19%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Diambars (draw refunded)
62%
Casa Sport (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diambars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

Casa Sport away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diambars attack 1.24 + Casa Sport defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Casa Sport attack 0.81 + Diambars defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Diambars scores more
43%
level
31%
Casa Sport scores more
26%

Diambars at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diambars vs Casa Sport

Casa Sport beat Diambars 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Fodé Wade in Saly.