Casa Sport 2–1 Diambars: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Casa Sport

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Diambars

5/15/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Aline Sitoé Diatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Casa Sport43%

×Draw31%

Diambars26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casa SportExpected goals in this matchDiambars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.82

Casa Sport

1.14

Diambars

0.82

Casa Sport creates 39% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

1.02

creates per match

1.07

0.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Casa Sport

1.02

Diambars

1.07

allows per match

Casa Sport

0.57

Diambars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casa Sport+0.00on par

Diambars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Sport ↓

Diambars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Casa Sport or draw

74%

Casa Sport or Diambars

69%

Draw or Diambars

57%

Winning margin

Casa Sport wins by 2+

18%

Diambars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Casa Sport 1+ goals

68%

Casa Sport 2+ goals

32%

Casa Sport 3+ goals

11%

Diambars 1+ goals

56%

Diambars 2+ goals

20%

Diambars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Casa Sport (draw refunded)

62%

Diambars (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.57 · 89 matches

Diambars away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Sport attack 1.02 + Diambars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Diambars attack 1.07 + Casa Sport defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Casa Sport scores more

43%

level

31%

Diambars scores more

26%

Casa Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Casa Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff