Diambars 3–0 ASEC Ndiambour: Result & Stats

Diambars

FT

3 – 0

ASEC Ndiambour

11/21/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Fodé Wade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Diambars53%

×Draw29%

ASEC Ndiambour18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiambarsExpected goals in this matchASEC Ndiambour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.61

Diambars

1.29

ASEC Ndiambour

0.61

Diambars creates 111% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 32 away

1.24

creates per match

0.44

0.78

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Diambars

1.24

ASEC Ndiambour

0.44

allows per match

Diambars

0.78

ASEC Ndiambour

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diambars+0.00on par

ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diambars ↓

ASEC Ndiambour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Diambars or draw

82%

Diambars or ASEC Ndiambour

71%

Draw or ASEC Ndiambour

47%

Winning margin

Diambars wins by 2+

25%

ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Diambars 1+ goals

72%

Diambars 2+ goals

37%

Diambars 3+ goals

14%

ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals

46%

ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals

13%

ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Diambars (draw refunded)

75%

ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diambars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 58 matches

ASEC Ndiambour away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diambars attack 1.24 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.44 + Diambars defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Diambars scores more

53%

level

29%

ASEC Ndiambour scores more

18%

Diambars at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Diambars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff