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Diamantes de Guayana vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Diamantes de Guayana
Diamantes de Guayana
FT
1 – 1
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
8/5/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 4Polideportivo Venalum (Puerto Ordaz, Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Diamantes de Guayana40%
×Draw28%
Yaracuy FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diamantes de Guayana
1.26
Yaracuy FC
1.12

Diamantes de Guayana creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 47 away

creates per match

Diamantes de Guayana
1.18
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Diamantes de Guayana
0.94
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diamantes de Guayana ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Diamantes de Guayana or draw
67%
Diamantes de Guayana or Yaracuy FC
72%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
60%

Winning margin

Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+
17%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals
72%
Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals
36%
Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals
13%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
67%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
31%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)
55%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diamantes de Guayana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.18 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Diamantes de Guayana scores more
40%
level
28%
Yaracuy FC scores more
33%

Diamantes de Guayana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Diamantes de Guayana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Diamantes de Guayana 1 – 1 Yaracuy FC

Diamantes de Guayana and Yaracuy FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Polideportivo Venalum (Puerto Ordaz, Ciudad Guayana).