Diamantes de Guayana 0–1 Llaneros de Guanare

Diamantes de Guayana

FT

0 – 1

Llaneros de Guanare

7/1/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - FinalsCTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Diamantes de Guayana46%

×Draw28%

Llaneros de Guanare26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Diamantes de GuayanaExpected goals in this matchLlaneros de Guanare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.94

Diamantes de Guayana

1.35

Llaneros de Guanare

0.94

Diamantes de Guayana creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

1.18

creates per match

0.93

0.94

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Diamantes de Guayana

1.18

Llaneros de Guanare

0.93

allows per match

Diamantes de Guayana

0.94

Llaneros de Guanare

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diamantes de Guayana ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Diamantes de Guayana or draw

74%

Diamantes de Guayana or Llaneros de Guanare

72%

Draw or Llaneros de Guanare

54%

Winning margin

Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+

22%

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals

74%

Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals

39%

Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals

15%

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals

61%

Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals

24%

Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)

64%

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diamantes de Guayana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.18 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Diamantes de Guayana scores more

46%

level

28%

Llaneros de Guanare scores more

26%

Diamantes de Guayana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Diamantes de Guayana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff