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Diamantes de Guayana vs Ciudad Vinotinto — Segunda División 2018

Diamantes de Guayana
Diamantes de Guayana
FT
2 – 1
Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
3/10/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 2CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Diamantes de Guayana50%
×Draw29%
Ciudad Vinotinto21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diamantes de Guayana
1.30
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.72

Diamantes de Guayana creates 81% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

creates per match

Diamantes de Guayana
1.18
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.50

allows per match

Diamantes de Guayana
0.94
Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42

finishing

Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par
Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diamantes de Guayana ↓

Ciudad Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Diamantes de Guayana or draw
79%
Diamantes de Guayana or Ciudad Vinotinto
71%
Draw or Ciudad Vinotinto
50%

Winning margin

Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+
24%
Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals
73%
Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals
37%
Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals
14%
Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
51%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
16%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)
71%
Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diamantes de Guayana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Ciudad Vinotinto away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.18 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.50 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Diamantes de Guayana scores more
50%
level
29%
Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
21%

Diamantes de Guayana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Diamantes de Guayana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diamantes de Guayana vs Ciudad Vinotinto

Diamantes de Guayana beat Ciudad Vinotinto 2-1 in Segunda División on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).