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Diamantes de Guayana vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

Diamantes de Guayana
Diamantes de Guayanaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
6/14/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - Semi-finalsCTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Diamantes de Guayana42%
×Draw26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diamantes de Guayana
1.42
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.21

Diamantes de Guayana creates 17% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 37 away

creates per match

Diamantes de Guayana
1.18
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

Diamantes de Guayana
0.94
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diamantes de Guayana ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Diamantes de Guayana or draw
68%
Diamantes de Guayana or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
74%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
58%

Winning margin

Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+
20%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals
76%
Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals
41%
Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals
17%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
70%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
34%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)
57%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diamantes de Guayana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.18 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Diamantes de Guayana scores more
42%
level
26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
32%

Diamantes de Guayana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Diamantes de Guayana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Diamantes de Guayana 2 – 0 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Diamantes de Guayana beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2-0 in Segunda División on June 14, 2018.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).