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Dhofar vs Al Qadsia — AFC Cup 2018

Dhofar
Dhofar
CANC
00:00
Al Qadsia
Al Qadsia
11/4/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6The Salalah Youth Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dhofar34%
×Draw29%
Al Qadsia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhofar
1.08
Al Qadsia
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dhofar
1.17
Al Qadsia
1.25

allows per match

Dhofar
1.00
Al Qadsia
1.00

finishing

Dhofar+0.00on par
Al Qadsia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhofar ↓

Al Qadsia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dhofar or draw
63%
Dhofar or Al Qadsia
71%
Draw or Al Qadsia
66%

Winning margin

Dhofar wins by 2+
14%
Al Qadsia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dhofar 1+ goals
66%
Dhofar 2+ goals
29%
Dhofar 3+ goals
10%
Al Qadsia 1+ goals
68%
Al Qadsia 2+ goals
31%
Al Qadsia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dhofar (draw refunded)
48%
Al Qadsia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhofar at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Al Qadsia away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhofar attack 1.17 + Al Qadsia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Qadsia attack 1.25 + Dhofar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dhofar scores more
34%
level
29%
Al Qadsia scores more
37%

Al Qadsia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Qadsia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dhofar vs Al Qadsia — Match Preview

Dhofar face Al Qadsia on November 4, 2020 in this AFC Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dhofar host Al Qadsia at The Salalah Youth Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.