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Dhofar vs Al-Nahda — Professional League 2019

Dhofar
Dhofar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
1/7/2026Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Dhofar40%
×Draw29%
Al-Nahda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhofar
1.19
Al-Nahda
1.03

Dhofar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 81 away

creates per match

Dhofar
1.58
Al-Nahda
1.25

allows per match

Dhofar
0.82
Al-Nahda
0.79

finishing

Dhofar+0.00on par
Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhofar ↓

Al-Nahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dhofar or draw
68%
Dhofar or Al-Nahda
71%
Draw or Al-Nahda
60%

Winning margin

Dhofar wins by 2+
17%
Al-Nahda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dhofar 1+ goals
70%
Dhofar 2+ goals
33%
Dhofar 3+ goals
12%
Al-Nahda 1+ goals
64%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
28%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dhofar (draw refunded)
56%
Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhofar at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 67 matches

Al-Nahda away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhofar attack 1.58 + Al-Nahda defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al-Nahda attack 1.25 + Dhofar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dhofar scores more
40%
level
29%
Al-Nahda scores more
32%

Dhofar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dhofar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dhofar vs Al-Nahda

Al-Nahda beat Dhofar 2-0 in Professional League on January 7, 2026.