Dhamk 1–2 Al Taawon: Result & Stats | Pro League

Dhamk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Taawon

Mansour Hamzi 56'

Fahad Al Rashidi 47'

L. Tawamba 27'

3/4/2023

Pro League · Round 19Dhamak Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Dhamk36%

×Draw27%

Al Taawon38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DhamkExpected goals in this matchAl Taawon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Dhamk

1.25

Al Taawon

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 126 away

1.32

creates per match

1.35

1.23

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Dhamk

1.32

Al Taawon

1.35

allows per match

Dhamk

1.23

Al Taawon

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al Taawon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw

62%

Dhamk or Al Taawon

73%

Draw or Al Taawon

64%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+

15%

Al Taawon wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals

71%

Dhamk 2+ goals

36%

Dhamk 3+ goals

13%

Al Taawon 1+ goals

72%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

37%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)

49%

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.32 + Al Taawon defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Taawon attack 1.35 + Dhamk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dhamk scores more

36%

level

27%

Al Taawon scores more

38%

Al Taawon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Gamarra

Al Taawon · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

El Arbi Hillel Soudani

11'

Mohamed Al-Ghamdi

22'

Ammar Al Najjar← H. Soudani

27'

L. Tawamba↳ A. Gamarra

45+2'

Tariq Mohammed

45+6'

Fahad Ayed Al-RashidiPenalty cancelled

46'

Turki Fahad Al Mutairi← L. Tawamba

47'

Fahad Al Rashidi↳ A. Gamarra

56'

Mansour Hamzi

65'

Sumaihan Al-Nabet

65'

Abdullah Tarmin← A. Maher

74'

Ziyad Al Sahafi← Sumayhan Al Nabit

82'

Abdullah Al-AmarPenalty cancelled

88'

Abdulaziz Al Shahrani← Abdulelah Al Shammry

88'

Dhari Al Anazi← Mansour Hamzi

88'

Rayan Al Mousa← Nono

90+8'

Turki Al-Mutairi

90+1'

Hassan Al Amri← Fahad Al Rashidi

90+1'

Awn Al Slaluli← Sulaiman Hazazi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DhamkAl

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots7

6Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target5

6Off Target2

2Blocked0

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

383Total Passes353

318Accurate Passes281

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3