Damac 0–1 Al Taawon: Result & Stats | Pro League

Damac

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Taawon

João Pedro 89'

4/26/2024

Pro League · Round 29Dhamak Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Damac36%

×Draw27%

Al Taawon38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DamacExpected goals in this matchAl Taawon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Damac

1.25

Al Taawon

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 126 away

1.32

creates per match

1.35

1.23

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Damac

1.32

Al Taawon

1.35

allows per match

Damac

1.23

Al Taawon

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damac+0.00on par

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al Taawon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Damac or draw

62%

Damac or Al Taawon

73%

Draw or Al Taawon

64%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+

15%

Al Taawon wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals

71%

Damac 2+ goals

36%

Damac 3+ goals

13%

Al Taawon 1+ goals

72%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

37%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)

49%

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.32 + Al Taawon defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Taawon attack 1.35 + Damac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Damac scores more

36%

level

27%

Al Taawon scores more

38%

Al Taawon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

N. Stanciu

Damac · M

7.6

Match Events

14'

Mohammed Mahzari← A. El Mahdioui

45'

Joao Pedro

47'

Nicolae Stanciu

57'

Mohamed Al-Ghamdi

62'

Abdulmalik Al Oyayari← Mohammed Al Ghamdi

64'

Ahmed Harisi← Abdulaziz Al Bishi

77'

Sattam Al Roqi← Ahmed Bahusayn

77'

Ibrahim Al Shuayl← Muath Faqeehi

77'

C. Guanca← Abdulfattah Adam

87'

Ahmad ZainCard upgrade

88'

Ahmad Zain

89'

João Pedro↳ Mohammed Al Kuwaykibi

90+1'

Moustapha Zeghba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DamacAl

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots5

2Corners2

20Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots5

2On Target3

8Off Target2

2Blocked0

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

400Total Passes349

332Accurate Passes278

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1