Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dhamk vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2018

Dhamk
Dhamk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
2/10/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 16Dhamak Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Dhamk46%
×Draw26%
Al-Fayha28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhamk
1.48
Al-Fayha
1.09

Dhamk creates 36% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Dhamk
1.32
Al-Fayha
0.96

allows per match

Dhamk
1.23
Al-Fayha
1.63

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par
Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw
72%
Dhamk or Al-Fayha
74%
Draw or Al-Fayha
54%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+
23%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals
77%
Dhamk 2+ goals
43%
Dhamk 3+ goals
19%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
66%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
30%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)
62%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.32 + Al-Fayha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al-Fayha attack 0.96 + Dhamk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dhamk scores more
46%
level
26%
Al-Fayha scores more
28%

Dhamk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dhamk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dhamk vs Al-Fayha

Dhamk and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in Pro League on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait.