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Damac vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2025

Damac
Damac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
Ramzi Solan 79'
F. Sakala 42' (pen)
5/17/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 32Dhamak Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Damac46%
×Draw25%
Al-Fayha29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damac
1.59
Al-Fayha
1.20

Damac creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

creates per match

Damac
1.18
Al-Fayha
1.10

allows per match

Damac
1.30
Al-Fayha
2.00

finishing

Damac+0.00on par
Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damac ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Damac or draw
71%
Damac or Al-Fayha
75%
Draw or Al-Fayha
54%

Winning margin

Damac wins by 2+
24%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Damac 1+ goals
80%
Damac 2+ goals
47%
Damac 3+ goals
21%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
70%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
34%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Damac (draw refunded)
62%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damac at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damac attack 1.18 + Al-Fayha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al-Fayha attack 1.10 + Damac defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Damac scores more
46%
level
25%
Al-Fayha scores more
29%

Damac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Damac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Tarek HamedDamacDamac · M
7.5

Match Events

10'
Muhannad Al Qaydhi← Ricardo Ryller
24'
Noor Al-Rashidi
35'
Alhwsawi Sanousi Mohammed
40'
Sultan MandashPenalty confirmed
42'
F. SakalaPenalty
46'
Abdulaziz Makin← Abdullah Al Qahtani
58'
Abdulaziz Al Shahrani← N. Stanciu
59'
Dhari Al Anazi← Abdulrahman Al Obaid
62'
Abdulaziz Makeen
69'
Abdulaziz Majrashi← Fahad Al Johani
69'
Ahmed Harisi← Bader Munshi
70'
Osama Al Khalaf← Muhannad Al Qaydhi
71'
Vladimir Stojković
78'
G. Cimirot← Mohammed Al Baqawi
79'
Ramzi Solan↳ Abdulaziz Al Shahrani
80'
Ramzi Sawlan
89'
Dhari Al-EneziPenalty cancelled

Possession

69%Damac

Shots

16Damac

Pass accuracy

56%Damac

Statistics

DamacAl-Fayha
Overview
69%Possession31%
16Total Shots8
4Corners3
13Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots8
3On Target4
11Off Target3
2Blocked1
8Inside Box7
8Outside Box1
Passing
69%Possession31%
583Total Passes264
509Accurate Passes183
87%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls11
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Damac vs Al-Fayha

Damac and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in Pro League on May 17, 2024.

Goals: F. Sakala (42' pen), Ramzi Solan (79').

Damac controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait.