Dhamk 0–0 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Dhamk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Faisaly FC

11/6/2020

Pro League · Round 4Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dhamk43%

×Draw26%

Al-Faisaly FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DhamkExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.18

Dhamk

1.43

Al-Faisaly FC

1.18

Dhamk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 60 away

1.32

creates per match

1.12

1.23

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Dhamk

1.32

Al-Faisaly FC

1.12

allows per match

Dhamk

1.23

Al-Faisaly FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw

69%

Dhamk or Al-Faisaly FC

74%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

57%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+

20%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals

76%

Dhamk 2+ goals

42%

Dhamk 3+ goals

17%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

69%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

33%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)

58%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.32 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Dhamk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dhamk scores more

43%

level

26%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

31%

Dhamk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dhamk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff