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Dhamk vs Al-Ain — Pro League 2018

Dhamk
Dhamk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Ain
Al-Ain
11/23/2020Pro LeaguePro League · Round 5Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dhamk53%
×Draw24%
Al-Ain23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhamk
1.73
Al-Ain
1.05

Dhamk creates 65% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dhamk
1.32
Al-Ain
0.87

allows per match

Dhamk
1.23
Al-Ain
2.13

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par
Al-Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Al-Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw
77%
Dhamk or Al-Ain
76%
Draw or Al-Ain
47%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+
29%
Al-Ain wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals
82%
Dhamk 2+ goals
52%
Dhamk 3+ goals
25%
Al-Ain 1+ goals
65%
Al-Ain 2+ goals
28%
Al-Ain 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)
70%
Al-Ain (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al-Ain away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.32 + Al-Ain defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Al-Ain attack 0.87 + Dhamk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dhamk scores more
53%
level
24%
Al-Ain scores more
23%

Dhamk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dhamk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dhamk vs Al-Ain

Al-Ain beat Dhamk 2-0 in Pro League on November 23, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.