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Dhamk vs Abha — Pro League 2018

Dhamk
Dhamk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Abha
Abha
2/19/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 21Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Dhamk52%
×Draw23%
Abha25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dhamk
1.77
Abha
1.14

Dhamk creates 55% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Dhamk
1.32
Abha
1.05

allows per match

Dhamk
1.23
Abha
2.21

finishing

Dhamk+0.00on par
Abha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dhamk ↓

Abha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dhamk or draw
75%
Dhamk or Abha
77%
Draw or Abha
48%

Winning margin

Dhamk wins by 2+
29%
Abha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dhamk 1+ goals
83%
Dhamk 2+ goals
53%
Dhamk 3+ goals
26%
Abha 1+ goals
68%
Abha 2+ goals
32%
Abha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dhamk (draw refunded)
68%
Abha (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dhamk at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Abha away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dhamk attack 1.32 + Abha defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Abha attack 1.05 + Dhamk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dhamk scores more
52%
level
23%
Abha scores more
25%

Dhamk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dhamk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dhamk 3 – 2 Abha

Dhamk beat Abha 3-2 in Pro League on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.