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Devonport U21 vs Burnie Utd. — Tasmania Northern Championship 2026

Devonport U21
Devonport U21
FT
3 – 2
Burnie Utd.
Burnie Utd.
3/16/2024Tasmania Northern ChampionshipTasmania Northern Championship · Round 1Valley Road Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Devonport U2176%
×Draw12%
Burnie Utd.12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devonport U21
4.44
Burnie Utd.
1.89

Devonport U21 creates 135% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

Devonport U21
4.21
Burnie Utd.
1.53

allows per match

Devonport U21
2.24
Burnie Utd.
4.67

finishing

Devonport U21+0.00on par
Burnie Utd.+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devonport U21 ↓

Burnie Utd. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–17%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Devonport U21 or draw
88%
Devonport U21 or Burnie Utd.
88%
Draw or Burnie Utd.
24%

Winning margin

Devonport U21 wins by 2+
59%
Burnie Utd. wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Devonport U21 1+ goals
99%
Devonport U21 2+ goals
92%
Devonport U21 3+ goals
78%
Burnie Utd. 1+ goals
85%
Burnie Utd. 2+ goals
56%
Burnie Utd. 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Devonport U21 (draw refunded)
86%
Burnie Utd. (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devonport U21 at home — creates 4.21, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Burnie Utd. away — creates 1.53, concedes 4.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devonport U21 attack 4.21 + Burnie Utd. defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.44

Burnie Utd. attack 1.53 + Devonport U21 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Devonport U21 scores more
76%
level
12%
Burnie Utd. scores more
12%

Devonport U21 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Devonport U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Devonport U21 vs Burnie Utd.

Devonport U21 beat Burnie Utd. 3-2 in Tasmania Northern Championship on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Valley Road Ground in Devonport.