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Burnie Utd. vs Devonport U21 — Tasmania Northern Championship 2026

Burnie Utd.
Burnie Utd.
ABD
04:30
Devonport U21
Devonport U21
7/18/2026Tasmania Northern ChampionshipTasmania Northern Championship · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Burnie Utd.36%
×Draw18%
Devonport U2145%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnie Utd.
2.54
Devonport U21
2.83

Devonport U21 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Burnie Utd.
1.96
Devonport U21
2.40

allows per match

Burnie Utd.
3.27
Devonport U21
3.12

finishing

Burnie Utd.+0.00on par
Devonport U21+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnie Utd. ↓

Devonport U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Burnie Utd. or draw
55%
Burnie Utd. or Devonport U21
82%
Draw or Devonport U21
64%

Winning margin

Burnie Utd. wins by 2+
21%
Devonport U21 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Burnie Utd. 1+ goals
92%
Burnie Utd. 2+ goals
72%
Burnie Utd. 3+ goals
46%
Devonport U21 1+ goals
94%
Devonport U21 2+ goals
77%
Devonport U21 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Burnie Utd. (draw refunded)
44%
Devonport U21 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnie Utd. at home — creates 1.96, concedes 3.27 · 26 matches

Devonport U21 away — creates 2.40, concedes 3.12 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnie Utd. attack 1.96 + Devonport U21 defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.54

Devonport U21 attack 2.40 + Burnie Utd. defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Burnie Utd. scores more
36%
level
18%
Devonport U21 scores more
45%

Devonport U21 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Devonport U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burnie Utd. vs Devonport U21 — Match Preview

Burnie Utd. face Devonport U21 on July 18, 2026 in this Tasmania Northern Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.