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Devolli vs Shënkolli — 1st Division 2019

Devolli
Devolli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shënkolli
Shënkolli
7/12/20201st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 7Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Devolli61%
×Draw19%
Shënkolli20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devolli
2.33
Shënkolli
1.27

Devolli creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Devolli
1.87
Shënkolli
1.14

allows per match

Devolli
1.40
Shënkolli
2.79

finishing

Devolli+0.00on par
Shënkolli+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devolli ↓

Shënkolli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Devolli or draw
80%
Devolli or Shënkolli
81%
Draw or Shënkolli
39%

Winning margin

Devolli wins by 2+
39%
Shënkolli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Devolli 1+ goals
90%
Devolli 2+ goals
67%
Devolli 3+ goals
41%
Shënkolli 1+ goals
72%
Shënkolli 2+ goals
36%
Shënkolli 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Devolli (draw refunded)
75%
Shënkolli (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devolli at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Shënkolli away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devolli attack 1.87 + Shënkolli defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.33

Shënkolli attack 1.14 + Devolli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Devolli scores more
61%
level
19%
Shënkolli scores more
20%

Devolli at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Devolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Devolli vs Shënkolli

Devolli beat Shënkolli 1-0 in 1st Division on July 12, 2020.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.