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Devolli vs Partizani Tirana II — 1st Division 2019

Devolli
Devolli
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Partizani Tirana II
Partizani Tirana II
8/5/20201st Division1st Division · FinalsElbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Devolli43%
×Draw24%
Partizani Tirana II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devolli
1.63
Partizani Tirana II
1.39

Devolli creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Devolli
1.87
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

allows per match

Devolli
1.40
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

finishing

Devolli+0.00on par
Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devolli ↓

Partizani Tirana II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Devolli or draw
67%
Devolli or Partizani Tirana II
76%
Draw or Partizani Tirana II
57%

Winning margin

Devolli wins by 2+
22%
Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Devolli 1+ goals
80%
Devolli 2+ goals
48%
Devolli 3+ goals
22%
Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals
75%
Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals
40%
Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Devolli (draw refunded)
57%
Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devolli at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Partizani Tirana II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devolli attack 1.87 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.38 + Devolli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Devolli scores more
43%
level
24%
Partizani Tirana II scores more
33%

Devolli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Devolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Devolli 3–4 Partizani Tirana II

Partizani Tirana II beat Devolli 4-3 in 1st Division on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.