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Devolli vs Oriku — 1st Division 2019

Devolli
Devolli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oriku
Oriku
9/21/20191st Division1st Division · Round 2Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Devolli53%
×Draw25%
Oriku22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devolli
1.57
Oriku
0.90

Devolli creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 40 away

creates per match

Devolli
1.87
Oriku
0.40

allows per match

Devolli
1.40
Oriku
1.27

finishing

Devolli+0.00on par
Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devolli ↓

Oriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Devolli or draw
78%
Devolli or Oriku
75%
Draw or Oriku
47%

Winning margin

Devolli wins by 2+
28%
Oriku wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Devolli 1+ goals
79%
Devolli 2+ goals
46%
Devolli 3+ goals
21%
Oriku 1+ goals
59%
Oriku 2+ goals
23%
Oriku 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Devolli (draw refunded)
71%
Oriku (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devolli at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devolli attack 1.87 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Oriku attack 0.40 + Devolli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Devolli scores more
53%
level
25%
Oriku scores more
22%

Devolli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Devolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Devolli 0 – 0 Oriku

Devolli and Oriku drew 0-0 in 1st Division on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.