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Devolli vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Devolli
Devolli
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
2/29/20201st Division1st Division · Round 18Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Devolli46%
×Draw24%
Besa Kavajë30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devolli
1.67
Besa Kavajë
1.30

Devolli creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Devolli
1.87
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Devolli
1.40
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Devolli+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devolli ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Devolli or draw
70%
Devolli or Besa Kavajë
76%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
54%

Winning margin

Devolli wins by 2+
24%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Devolli 1+ goals
81%
Devolli 2+ goals
50%
Devolli 3+ goals
23%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
73%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
37%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Devolli (draw refunded)
61%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devolli at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devolli attack 1.87 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Devolli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Devolli scores more
46%
level
24%
Besa Kavajë scores more
30%

Devolli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Devolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Devolli 2–3 Besa Kavajë

Besa Kavajë beat Devolli 3-2 in 1st Division on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.