Devolli 1–2 Apolonia Fier: Result & Stats

Devolli

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Apolonia Fier

11/9/2019

1st Division · Round 8Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Devolli44%

×Draw25%

Apolonia Fier31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DevolliExpected goals in this matchApolonia Fier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.23

Devolli

1.52

Apolonia Fier

1.23

Devolli creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

1.87

creates per match

1.05

1.40

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Devolli

1.87

Apolonia Fier

1.05

allows per match

Devolli

1.40

Apolonia Fier

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Devolli+0.00on par

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devolli ↓

Apolonia Fier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Devolli or draw

69%

Devolli or Apolonia Fier

75%

Draw or Apolonia Fier

56%

Winning margin

Devolli wins by 2+

22%

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Devolli 1+ goals

78%

Devolli 2+ goals

45%

Devolli 3+ goals

20%

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

71%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

35%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Devolli (draw refunded)

59%

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devolli at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devolli attack 1.87 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Devolli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Devolli scores more

44%

level

25%

Apolonia Fier scores more

31%

Devolli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Devolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff