Deveronvale 2–2 Haddington Athletic: Result & Stats

Deveronvale

FT

2 – 2

Haddington Athletic

9/18/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundPrincess Royal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deveronvale34%

×Draw21%

Haddington Athletic44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeveronvaleExpected goals in this matchHaddington Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.02

Deveronvale

1.77

Haddington Athletic

2.02

Haddington Athletic creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.20

2.83

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Deveronvale

1.33

Haddington Athletic

1.20

allows per match

Deveronvale

2.83

Haddington Athletic

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deveronvale+0.00on par

Haddington Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deveronvale ↓

Haddington Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Deveronvale or draw

56%

Deveronvale or Haddington Athletic

79%

Draw or Haddington Athletic

66%

Winning margin

Deveronvale wins by 2+

17%

Haddington Athletic wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Deveronvale 1+ goals

83%

Deveronvale 2+ goals

53%

Deveronvale 3+ goals

26%

Haddington Athletic 1+ goals

87%

Haddington Athletic 2+ goals

60%

Haddington Athletic 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Deveronvale (draw refunded)

44%

Haddington Athletic (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deveronvale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Haddington Athletic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deveronvale attack 1.33 + Haddington Athletic defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Haddington Athletic attack 1.20 + Deveronvale defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deveronvale scores more

34%

level

21%

Haddington Athletic scores more

44%

Haddington Athletic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Haddington Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff