Deveronvale 2–4 East Kilbride: Result & Stats

Deveronvale

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

East Kilbride

9/17/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundPrincess Royal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Deveronvale25%

×Draw18%

East Kilbride57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeveronvaleExpected goals in this matchEast Kilbride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.79

Deveronvale

1.85

East Kilbride

2.79

East Kilbride creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

2.75

2.83

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Deveronvale

1.33

East Kilbride

2.75

allows per match

Deveronvale

2.83

East Kilbride

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deveronvale+0.00on par

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deveronvale ↓

East Kilbride →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Deveronvale or draw

43%

Deveronvale or East Kilbride

82%

Draw or East Kilbride

75%

Winning margin

Deveronvale wins by 2+

12%

East Kilbride wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Deveronvale 1+ goals

84%

Deveronvale 2+ goals

55%

Deveronvale 3+ goals

28%

East Kilbride 1+ goals

94%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

76%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Deveronvale (draw refunded)

31%

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deveronvale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deveronvale attack 1.33 + East Kilbride defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

East Kilbride attack 2.75 + Deveronvale defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deveronvale scores more

25%

level

18%

East Kilbride scores more

57%

East Kilbride at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "East Kilbride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff