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Deveronvale vs Bo'ness United — FA Cup 2019

Deveronvale
Deveronvale
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Bo'ness United
Bo'ness United
Noble 19'
Johnston 38'
Osadolor 36'
Kennedy 12'
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundPrincess Royal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Deveronvale27%
×Draw21%
Bo'ness United52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deveronvale
1.56
Bo'ness United
2.21

Bo'ness United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deveronvale
1.33
Bo'ness United
1.60

allows per match

Deveronvale
2.83
Bo'ness United
1.80

finishing

Deveronvale+0.00on par
Bo'ness United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deveronvale ↓

Bo'ness United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Deveronvale or draw
48%
Deveronvale or Bo'ness United
79%
Draw or Bo'ness United
73%

Winning margin

Deveronvale wins by 2+
13%
Bo'ness United wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Deveronvale 1+ goals
79%
Deveronvale 2+ goals
46%
Deveronvale 3+ goals
21%
Bo'ness United 1+ goals
89%
Bo'ness United 2+ goals
65%
Bo'ness United 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Deveronvale (draw refunded)
34%
Bo'ness United (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deveronvale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Bo'ness United away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deveronvale attack 1.33 + Bo'ness United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bo'ness United attack 1.60 + Deveronvale defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deveronvale scores more
27%
level
21%
Bo'ness United scores more
52%

Bo'ness United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bo'ness United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Kennedy
19'
Noble
36'
Osadolor
38'
Johnston

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Deveronvale 2–4 Bo'ness United

Bo'ness United beat Deveronvale 4-2 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: Kennedy (12'), Noble (19'), Osadolor (36'), Johnston (38').

The match was played at Princess Royal Park in Banff.