Deutz 3–2 SV Breinig: Result & Stats

Deutz

FT

3 – 2

SV Breinig

8/22/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 3SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Deutz40%

×Draw21%

SV Breinig39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeutzExpected goals in this matchSV Breinig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.91

Deutz

1.95

SV Breinig

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.10

creates per match

1.15

2.67

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Deutz

1.10

SV Breinig

1.15

allows per match

Deutz

2.67

SV Breinig

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par

SV Breinig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

SV Breinig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Deutz or draw

61%

Deutz or SV Breinig

79%

Draw or SV Breinig

60%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+

22%

SV Breinig wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals

86%

Deutz 2+ goals

58%

Deutz 3+ goals

31%

SV Breinig 1+ goals

85%

SV Breinig 2+ goals

57%

SV Breinig 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)

51%

SV Breinig (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

SV Breinig away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + SV Breinig defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.95

SV Breinig attack 1.15 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deutz scores more

40%

level

21%

SV Breinig scores more

39%

Deutz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deutz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff