Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deutz vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Deutz
Deutz
CANC
13:30
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
5/9/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz35%
×Draw21%
Friesdorf44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutz
1.80
Friesdorf
2.02

Friesdorf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

creates per match

Deutz
1.10
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Deutz
2.67
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Deutz or draw
56%
Deutz or Friesdorf
79%
Draw or Friesdorf
65%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+
18%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals
83%
Deutz 2+ goals
54%
Deutz 3+ goals
27%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
87%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
60%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)
45%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deutz scores more
35%
level
21%
Friesdorf scores more
44%

Friesdorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Friesdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deutz host Friesdorf

May 9, 2021: Deutz take on Friesdorf in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deutz host Friesdorf at SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.