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Deutz vs Freialdenhoven — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Deutz
Deutz
FT
1 – 3
Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
9/6/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 1SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz24%
×Draw20%
Freialdenhoven56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutz
1.39
Freialdenhoven
2.21

Freialdenhoven creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 51 away

creates per match

Deutz
1.10
Freialdenhoven
1.75

allows per match

Deutz
2.67
Freialdenhoven
1.67

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par
Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

Freialdenhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Deutz or draw
44%
Deutz or Freialdenhoven
80%
Draw or Freialdenhoven
76%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+
10%
Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals
75%
Deutz 2+ goals
40%
Deutz 3+ goals
16%
Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
89%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
65%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)
30%
Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deutz scores more
24%
level
20%
Freialdenhoven scores more
56%

Freialdenhoven at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deutz vs Freialdenhoven

Freialdenhoven beat Deutz 3-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz in Köln.