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Deutz vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Deutz
Deutz
CANC
17:30
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
4/1/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz29%
×Draw21%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutz
1.55
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.08

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 44 away

creates per match

Deutz
1.10
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Deutz
2.67
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Deutz or draw
50%
Deutz or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
79%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
71%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+
13%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals
79%
Deutz 2+ goals
46%
Deutz 3+ goals
20%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
87%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
61%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)
37%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deutz scores more
29%
level
21%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
50%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BCV Glesch / Paffendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deutz vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Match Preview

Deutz face BCV Glesch / Paffendorf on April 1, 2021 in this Oberliga - Mittelrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deutz host BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.