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Deutschlandsberger SC vs Hertha — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hertha
Hertha
9/18/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 6Koralmstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Deutschlandsberger SC46%
×Draw22%
Hertha32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutschlandsberger SC
1.90
Hertha
1.57

Deutschlandsberger SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 61 away

creates per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
2.17
Hertha
1.77

allows per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
1.37
Hertha
1.64

finishing

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par
Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutschlandsberger SC ↓

Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Deutschlandsberger SC or draw
68%
Deutschlandsberger SC or Hertha
78%
Draw or Hertha
54%

Winning margin

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
25%
Hertha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
85%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
56%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
29%
Hertha 1+ goals
79%
Hertha 2+ goals
46%
Hertha 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
59%
Hertha (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutschlandsberger SC at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 105 matches

Hertha away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 2.17 + Hertha defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hertha attack 1.77 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
46%
level
22%
Hertha scores more
32%

Deutschlandsberger SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deutschlandsberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Deutschlandsberger SC 3–3 Hertha

Deutschlandsberger SC and Hertha drew 3-3 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 18, 2020.

The match was played at Koralmstadion in Deutschlandsberg.