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Deusto vs Derio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deusto
Deusto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Derio
Derio
1/31/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Deusto41%
×Draw28%
Derio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deusto
1.27
Derio
1.07

Deusto creates 19% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 53 away

creates per match

Deusto
1.30
Derio
1.15

allows per match

Deusto
1.00
Derio
1.23

finishing

Deusto+0.00on par
Derio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deusto ↓

Derio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deusto or draw
69%
Deusto or Derio
72%
Draw or Derio
59%

Winning margin

Deusto wins by 2+
18%
Derio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deusto 1+ goals
72%
Deusto 2+ goals
36%
Deusto 3+ goals
14%
Derio 1+ goals
66%
Derio 2+ goals
29%
Derio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deusto (draw refunded)
57%
Derio (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deusto at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Derio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deusto attack 1.30 + Derio defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Derio attack 1.15 + Deusto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deusto scores more
41%
level
28%
Derio scores more
31%

Deusto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deusto 1–2 Derio

Derio beat Deusto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri in Bilbao.