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Deusto vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deusto
Deusto
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deusto30%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deusto
1.04
Deportivo Alavés II
1.27

Deportivo Alavés II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

creates per match

Deusto
1.30
Deportivo Alavés II
1.53

allows per match

Deusto
1.00
Deportivo Alavés II
0.79

finishing

Deusto+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deusto ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deusto or draw
58%
Deusto or Deportivo Alavés II
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
70%

Winning margin

Deusto wins by 2+
11%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Deusto 1+ goals
65%
Deusto 2+ goals
28%
Deusto 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deusto (draw refunded)
42%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deusto at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deusto attack 1.30 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Deusto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deusto scores more
30%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
42%

Deportivo Alavés II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deusto 0 – 0 Deportivo Alavés II

Deusto and Deportivo Alavés II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri in Bilbao.