Deusto 0–1 Balmaseda: Result & Stats

Deusto

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Balmaseda

9/14/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deusto42%

×Draw29%

Balmaseda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeustoExpected goals in this matchBalmaseda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.94

Deusto

1.21

Balmaseda

0.94

Deusto creates 29% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

0.87

1.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Deusto

1.30

Balmaseda

0.87

allows per match

Deusto

1.00

Balmaseda

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deusto+0.00on par

Balmaseda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deusto ↓

Balmaseda →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deusto or draw

71%

Deusto or Balmaseda

71%

Draw or Balmaseda

58%

Winning margin

Deusto wins by 2+

18%

Balmaseda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deusto 1+ goals

70%

Deusto 2+ goals

34%

Deusto 3+ goals

12%

Balmaseda 1+ goals

61%

Balmaseda 2+ goals

24%

Balmaseda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deusto (draw refunded)

60%

Balmaseda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deusto at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Balmaseda away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deusto attack 1.30 + Balmaseda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Balmaseda attack 0.87 + Deusto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deusto scores more

42%

level

29%

Balmaseda scores more

29%

Deusto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff