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Deusto vs Ariznabarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deusto
Deusto
CANC
00:00
Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
3/30/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Deusto61%
×Draw23%
Ariznabarra16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deusto
1.77
Ariznabarra
0.76

Deusto creates 133% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 29 away

creates per match

Deusto
1.30
Ariznabarra
0.52

allows per match

Deusto
1.00
Ariznabarra
2.24

finishing

Deusto+0.00on par
Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deusto ↓

Ariznabarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deusto or draw
84%
Deusto or Ariznabarra
77%
Draw or Ariznabarra
39%

Winning margin

Deusto wins by 2+
35%
Ariznabarra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deusto 1+ goals
83%
Deusto 2+ goals
53%
Deusto 3+ goals
26%
Ariznabarra 1+ goals
53%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
18%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deusto (draw refunded)
80%
Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deusto at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deusto attack 1.30 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + Deusto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deusto scores more
61%
level
23%
Ariznabarra scores more
16%

Deusto at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deusto face Ariznabarra (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Deusto hosting Ariznabarra. Match starts March 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deusto host Ariznabarra at Campo de Fútbol de Etxezuri.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.