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Tondela vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2026

Tondela
Tondela
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
J. Murillo 53'
B. Dost 77' (pen), 71' (pen), 55', 33'
3/11/2017Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 25Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Tondela19%
×Draw23%
Sporting CP58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
0.89
Sporting CP
1.75

Sporting CP creates 97% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.10
Sporting CP
1.95

allows per match

Tondela
1.54
Sporting CP
0.68

finishing

Tondela-0.43scores less
Sporting CP+0.38scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
42%
Tondela or Sporting CP
77%
Draw or Sporting CP
81%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
6%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
59%
Tondela 2+ goals
22%
Tondela 3+ goals
6%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
83%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
52%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
25%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.68 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.10 + Sporting CP defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.89

Sporting CP attack 1.95 + Tondela defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tondela scores more
19%
level
23%
Sporting CP scores more
58%

Sporting CP at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
B. DostSporting CPSporting CP · F
9.5

Match Events

33'
B. Dost↳ Daniel Podence
53'
J. Murillo↳ Pedro Nuno
55'
B. Dost↳ Matheus Pereira
59'
Yordan Osorio
69'
Jhon Murillo
71'
B. DostPenalty
72'
Amido Baldé← Eli
74'
Paulo Oliveira
77'
B. DostPenalty
78'
Fernando Ferreira← Hélder Tavares
78'
Murilo← Miguel Cardoso
80'
João Palhinha← Matheus Pereira
86'
J. Campbell← Gelson Martins
86'
Chico Geraldes← Daniel Podence
89'
Joel Campbell
90'
Claude Goncalves

Possession

36%Tondela

Shots

10Tondela

Pass accuracy

46%Tondela

Statistics

TondelaSporting
Overview
36%Possession64%
10Total Shots12
4Corners3
23Fouls22
Shots
10Total Shots12
4On Target8
4Off Target3
2Blocked1
6Inside Box11
4Outside Box1
Passing
36%Possession64%
299Total Passes539
213Accurate Passes445
71%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
23Fouls22
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Tondela vs Sporting CP

Sporting CP beat Tondela 4-1 in Primeira Liga on March 11, 2017.

Goals: B. Dost (33', 55', 71' pen, 77' pen), J. Murillo (53').

Sporting CP controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.