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Al-Dhafra vs Sharjah FC — League #302 2026

Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
Diego 34'
11/13/2018League #302League #302 · Group Stage - 5Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan Stadium (Madinat Zaid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Dhafra57%
×Draw21%
Sharjah FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Dhafra
2.10
Sharjah FC
1.23

Al-Dhafra creates 71% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al-Dhafra
2.00
Sharjah FC
0.80

allows per match

Al-Dhafra
1.67
Sharjah FC
2.20

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par
Sharjah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Sharjah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw
78%
Al-Dhafra or Sharjah FC
79%
Draw or Sharjah FC
43%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
35%
Sharjah FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
88%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
62%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
35%
Sharjah FC 1+ goals
71%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
35%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
72%
Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Sharjah FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 2.00 + Sharjah FC defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Sharjah FC attack 0.80 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more
57%
level
21%
Sharjah FC scores more
22%

Al-Dhafra at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Suhail Al Mansoori← Abdulla Al Hammadi
34'
Diego
46'
Yousif Saeed Juma← Tariq Abdalla
57'
Ali Mohamed Khameis← Abdullah Aqeel
61'
Khalid Bawazir← Saeed Al Kathiri
65'
Sultan Al Suwaidi← Khalid Butti
74'
Moatasem Yassin← Ahmed Surour

Al-Dhafra 1 – 0 Sharjah FC

Al-Dhafra beat Sharjah FC 1-0 in League #302 on November 13, 2018.

Goals: Diego (34').

The match was played at Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan Stadium (Madinat Zaid).