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San Carlos vs CS Cartagines — League #162 2026

San Carlos
San Carlos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CS Cartagines
CS Cartagines
J. Castro 42'
7/24/2016League #162League #162 · Torneo de Invierno - 3Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez (Ciudad Quesada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

San Carlos23%
×Draw30%
CS Cartagines47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Carlos
0.73
CS Cartagines
1.19

CS Cartagines creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

San Carlos
0.40
CS Cartagines
1.19

allows per match

San Carlos
1.20
CS Cartagines
1.06

finishing

San Carlos+0.00on par
CS Cartagines+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Carlos ↓

CS Cartagines →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Carlos or draw
53%
San Carlos or CS Cartagines
70%
Draw or CS Cartagines
77%

Winning margin

San Carlos wins by 2+
7%
CS Cartagines wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

San Carlos 1+ goals
52%
San Carlos 2+ goals
17%
San Carlos 3+ goals
4%
CS Cartagines 1+ goals
70%
CS Cartagines 2+ goals
33%
CS Cartagines 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Carlos (draw refunded)
33%
CS Cartagines (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Carlos at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

CS Cartagines away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Carlos attack 0.40 + CS Cartagines defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.73

CS Cartagines attack 1.19 + San Carlos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Carlos scores more
23%
level
30%
CS Cartagines scores more
47%

CS Cartagines at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CS Cartagines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
J. Castro
57'
G. Clunie← I. Calderón
66'
J. Marrero← J. Castro
69'
P. Solano← R. Castañeda
79'
E. Chacón← G. Jiménez
85'
D. Fonseca← R. Brenes
88'
E. Zuñiga← J. Zarate

Match Recap: San Carlos vs CS Cartagines

CS Cartagines beat San Carlos 1-0 in League #162 on July 24, 2016.

Goals: J. Castro (42').

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez (Ciudad Quesada).