Detroit City 3–0 Michigan Stars: Result & Stats

Detroit City

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Michigan Stars

4/5/2022

US Open Cup · 2nd RoundKeyworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Detroit City53%

×Draw26%

Michigan Stars21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Detroit CityExpected goals in this matchMichigan Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.88

Detroit City

1.56

Michigan Stars

0.88

Detroit City creates 77% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.13

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Detroit City

2.13

Michigan Stars

0.75

allows per match

Detroit City

1.00

Michigan Stars

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Detroit City+0.00on par

Michigan Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detroit City ↓

Michigan Stars →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Detroit City or draw

79%

Detroit City or Michigan Stars

74%

Draw or Michigan Stars

47%

Winning margin

Detroit City wins by 2+

28%

Michigan Stars wins by 2+

Team goals

Detroit City 1+ goals

79%

Detroit City 2+ goals

46%

Detroit City 3+ goals

21%

Michigan Stars 1+ goals

59%

Michigan Stars 2+ goals

22%

Michigan Stars 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Detroit City (draw refunded)

71%

Michigan Stars (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Detroit City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Michigan Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Detroit City attack 2.13 + Michigan Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Michigan Stars attack 0.75 + Detroit City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Detroit City scores more

53%

level

26%

Michigan Stars scores more

21%

Detroit City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Detroit City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff