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Detroit City vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Detroit City
Detroit City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
10/12/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 38Keyworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Detroit City46%
×Draw28%
Indy Eleven26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Detroit City
1.36
Indy Eleven
0.94

Detroit City creates 45% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 130 away

creates per match

Detroit City
1.14
Indy Eleven
1.12

allows per match

Detroit City
0.76
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Detroit City+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detroit City ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Detroit City or draw
74%
Detroit City or Indy Eleven
72%
Draw or Indy Eleven
54%

Winning margin

Detroit City wins by 2+
22%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Detroit City 1+ goals
74%
Detroit City 2+ goals
39%
Detroit City 3+ goals
16%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
61%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
24%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Detroit City (draw refunded)
64%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detroit City at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.76 · 72 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detroit City attack 1.14 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Indy Eleven attack 1.12 + Detroit City defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Detroit City scores more
46%
level
28%
Indy Eleven scores more
26%

Detroit City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Detroit City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Detroit City vs Indy Eleven

Detroit City and Indy Eleven drew 0-0 in USL Championship on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Keyworth Stadium in Hamtramck, Michigan.