Detroit City 0–0 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

Detroit City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Indy Eleven

9/3/2022

USL Championship · Round 37Keyworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Detroit City46%

×Draw28%

Indy Eleven26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Detroit CityExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Detroit City

1.35

Indy Eleven

0.93

Detroit City creates 45% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 127 away

1.15

creates per match

1.10

0.75

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Detroit City

1.15

Indy Eleven

1.10

allows per match

Detroit City

0.75

Indy Eleven

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Detroit City+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detroit City ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Detroit City or draw

74%

Detroit City or Indy Eleven

72%

Draw or Indy Eleven

54%

Winning margin

Detroit City wins by 2+

22%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Detroit City 1+ goals

74%

Detroit City 2+ goals

39%

Detroit City 3+ goals

15%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

61%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

24%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Detroit City (draw refunded)

64%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detroit City at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.75 · 73 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detroit City attack 1.15 + Indy Eleven defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Detroit City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Detroit City scores more

46%

level

28%

Indy Eleven scores more

26%

Detroit City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Detroit City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

R. Williams

43'

R. Michael

46'

S. Asante← R. Michael

58'

Stéfano Pinho← W. Rivera

79'

R. Foster← R. Williams

79'

Y. Matthews← P. Botello Faz

88'

A. Hoppenot

90+6'

T. Trilk

90+7'

J. Vazquez

Detroit

Indy

1

4

22

5

2

7

23

6

32

▼

Rivera

17

Tejada

19

▼

1

5

20

2

▼

15

6

21

12

11

29

19

▼

Faz

Manager: T. James

79'▲R. Foster←▼R. Williams

79'▲Y. Matthews←▼P. Botello Faz

Detroit City substitutes

23Foster27Matthews9Atuahene47Tanyi13Shellow14Goddard24Gasso

Manager: M. Lowry

46'▲S. Asante←▼R. Michael

58'▲Stéfano Pinho←▼W. Rivera

Indy Eleven substitutes

14Asante29Pinho35Sanchez99Lewis37Revolorio