Detonit Plachkovica 1–0 Skopje: Result & Stats

Detonit Plachkovica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Skopje

2/24/2024

Second League · Round 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Detonit Plachkovica46%

×Draw28%

Skopje26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Detonit PlachkovicaExpected goals in this matchSkopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.93

Detonit Plachkovica

1.33

Skopje

0.93

Detonit Plachkovica creates 43% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 66 away

1.59

creates per match

1.15

0.71

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Detonit Plachkovica

1.59

Skopje

1.15

allows per match

Detonit Plachkovica

0.71

Skopje

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detonit Plachkovica ↓

Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Detonit Plachkovica or draw

74%

Detonit Plachkovica or Skopje

72%

Draw or Skopje

54%

Winning margin

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

21%

Skopje wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

74%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

38%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

15%

Skopje 1+ goals

61%

Skopje 2+ goals

24%

Skopje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

64%

Skopje (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detonit Plachkovica at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.71 · 59 matches

Skopje away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.59 + Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Skopje attack 1.15 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

46%

level

28%

Skopje scores more

26%

Detonit Plachkovica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff